2020 Phoenix Championship 4 weekend
Let’s take a step back to March of this year real quick. I had been getting my face kicked in left and right on Nascar’s short season. Seemed like I would be at the top of the leaderboards with a few laps to go and caution would come out just to fuk it all up. Then Phoenix rolls around. I watched all the races from 2017 until present date at the time and took my notes. Picked my lines just like I would any other weekend and sent it. Since I know you want to get to the good stuff Ill keep it short here, We won! Took down the $100,000 lobby T1 and won the Chrome Horn lobby outright. So, if we can do it in March we can do it in November.
Phoenix is a very unique track that does not produce that great of racing but does produce repetitive results. If there is one things that degenerates such as ourselves like, its repetitive results. Dating back to 2017, the winning lineups consisted of 3-dom stacks (3 top tier guys that can lead laps). Earlier this year those 3 were Harvick, Elliot and Logano. Now, Brad did lead a bit of laps but fell late in the going so make sure to keep that in mind. This race will be a bit different since it will be the first time that Phoenix is hosting the Championship race. We’ll still look for a similar constructed lineups but changing the drivers out accordingly based upon the final 4 contenders.
Martin Truex Jr
Either the draftking pricing staff has been on a remote island for the past year or they know something we dont know about MTJ this week to be priced that high. Listen, if you feel the need to go here I understand I guess but its not the smart play. He can lead laps and can definitely win any race but Phoenix is historically not one of his better tracks and he is not in the final 4. Ill pay down.
If anyone should be the highest on the slate without being in the final 4 its Kevin. Dude has like 11 or 12 wins here…does it even matter at that point. This is his house and he proves it time and time again. With him winning 9 races there year and still falling short of the final 4 I expect Harvick to show up with a chip on his shoulder to prove he should have been in the running for the championship. My only concern here is that he will respect the champ 4 in the end and fall back and let them battle it out. Hopefully not, but I can see it happening. Oh, he was in my winning lineup in March.
This has been 1 driver that I will be looking to nail down a little better next year. It seems he shows up when I decide to shy away. Regardless, I was on him in March and considering he is in the final 4 and has the same race car he won with at New Hampshire and Richmond (same tire and race package this weekend) Ill be on him again. Cindric showed a ton of speed yesterday as well so if thats any indication of how Penske will run today we should be in good shape here.
He has been so hot lately and it is very unfortunate for us DFSers. Listen, he will probably be the highest owned person on the slate because of recent running and the fact that hes the new Dale Jr of the sport. I was all over him in March when he did his normal things here leading laps and contending at the end, Ill be on him again heavy. He was also in the winning lineup in March.
Heres the other one in the field that has decided to show up the weeks I finally hop off the train. If he was not in the champ 4 I would full fade Hamlin here. Besides a few laps led here and there over the past couple years this is not his place. I hate feeling the need to take him but if you dont, you know what will happen. This will be my lowest owned of final 4.
Joey Logano was 11% owned in March when he was in my winning lineup and I was really wishing that would be the case again but he made the final 4 so that will most likely now happen. Expect the 30-40% owned range considering he won here in the Spring and he just won a couple weeks ago. Being a final 4 contender does not hurt either.
If we are going to consider this a short track then you have to always consider Blaney as a threat to lead a ton of laps and finish top 10. My concern this week is he is very highly priced on a week that most people will not lead if they are not in final 4. I will take a couple but do not go crazy here.
So, if you want pretty much any Phoenix race dating back to 2017 Kyle Busch has led some or a ton of laps in the event. Which makes him a scary person to fade but I will be doing it this week simply because its champ 4 week. This is the person you should play that I am not.
The starting spot looks juicy but if you take him you are giving up a potential lap leader which I think is way more important than a guy that starts 26th and could run top 10. There are more of those options deeper down the line.
Does he show up this week? Probably not. History says he doesnt and he is pricey for someone starting 6th that will have a tough time leading against the 4.
He has had some great runs here recently and lead laps but that was in a SHR car with a Kevin Harvick setup on the car. I know Larson and Ginassi can get around this place just dont know if Kurt can. Ill pay down
If I were building normal lineups for a normal Phoenix race EJ would be in majority of them. This is one of his best tracks historically and he loves this place. Its been a rough year for EJ and I look for him to go out on a high note but I will be down the board a bit due to stacks.
Damnit Byron why are you starting 25th? Oh, because of the x2 +3 /6 (this is not accurate) equation that Nascar threw together for the qualifying this year. This sucks, he is in that dead zone to me due to my stacks but he is a play at this price and starting that far back. He will run top 10 so if you are looking for someone in this price range this is one of the guys.
Balled out earlier this year at Phoenix. It fits his driving style perfectly now that they have added the awesome sauce or stick icky to the top of the track. He started deep in the field earlier this year and drove up to 2nd. Actually, ran there for a bit until he over ran a corner and slid back. Ran top 10 still until he had a flat. If you can get here, do it he will help your lines.
Was on his last year and almost won. Was on him this year and won but not with him in the lineup. I have a couple shares here but my concern is starting spot and again probably not going to lead laps considering its champ week.
He will most likely have a similar setup to Harvick here which is like traction control in a sense. I look for him to run top 10 all day. I wish the starting spot was mid teens but Ill take my shots here.
Matty DiBendetter (Burrito)
Love Matty D would love nothing more than to see him pull off a win in any car but this is not the week. He did show glimpses of speed in the race here earlier this year and drove up into top 5 but was not able to maintain. I have a few just incase but be careful here.
Next to Noah Gragson, Austin Dillon has to be one of the most annoying people to deal with in NASCAR. I would love nothing more to full fade him but I did that at richmond this year and he went out there and played strategy to lead 50+ laps and end up 4th to fuk up everything great I had going. So, I am here again this week covering my ass and probably wasting money while doing so. Do what ya want here.
He actually ran really well here in Xfinity series but did not show much speed in March. I dont know that he had picked up any at these type of tracks which makes me pay down. I do have a couple of course.
Well ya shit on us last week, can you do it again? I was really hoping he did not fall this far in the starting order because then I would have to take him and here we are. I would never have considered him until his starting spot became 31st. Still be easy here, this is not one of his tracks.
Actually, dude shows up on short tracks. I dont know if its the team or him that pulls the shit together but it happens when we are at these type of tracks. He has shown speed here over the past 2 years just does not have the finishes to show for it. I will be here this week in hopes of top15.
At 13% owned earlier this year Custer was one of the ones that helped me take down the big lobby. Remember, he is SHR and SHR most likely runs harvicks setups for the team cars here. He also did solid here in Xfinity which proves that he can get around this place. Im all over him again.
He’s Matt Kenseth. I am here, dont want to be but I feel that I have to be because he has won here in recent years. It was way better equipment and Kenseth was a full time driver at that points so Im sure thats worth something but he knows how to finish races here and maintain long run speed.
If I had 1 must play of the week, this is the guy. I know, youre thinking of all the lap leaders and championship 4 in the field and you are going to sit here and say Newman is the chalk….yeeeaup! Pick any race in the last 4 years and watch it. Newman will start beyond 20th and sneak his way up all day on long runs and finish top 10. Shit, he even backed his way into a win a few years back. Im all over it.
The $5k stud muffin himself up here in the mid 6k range. He ran decent here earlier in the year around mid teens and finished 16th. Do it again and we will be just fine.
Ricky Shithouse Jr.
I wish there was a over/under on laps he would wreck within but I cannot find one. I have a few because he works himself into winning lineups when hes priced this low but I do not this is a track that he goes and finishes 7th or better at so do not get your hopes up if youre are taking him.
Another G that was in the winning lineup for me earlier this year. He has proven many times that he can run up around 15th with the low downforce package and at this track which is why I took him in March. He started 24th then and is starting 22nd now, that scares me a bit but I am still there. He can get you the points at this price.
This is another one that I wish the offered over/under wreck props on. Dude cant catch a break. Ran great here earlier this year and finished 18th. He claims hes a short track guy, show me some action bruh!
Daniel “Mi Amigo” Suarez
Finally! I have been waiting this entire time to get to this part of the breakdown. Here he is! The man, the myth, the legend…..of my winning lineup in March haha. He started 31st in March and was about this price. Drove up and finished 20th to get me 39 points at 6% owned! I would love to see ownership this low again but I dont see that many people missing the boat on him again. For the record, he loves this track and always had performed well even in his rookie season. It fits him and is somewhat of a hometrack for him in America. I am all over this one and you should be as well.
John Hunter Nemechek
He always seems to run so well and then something happens late in the going to take him out of his top 15 run. He ran around 15th in March and couldnt pull it off. As of now, I have way to much of JHN but it allows you to get back up and stack the top so I guess I will have to leave it that way. This is as always a risky play.
For all those who read, Thank you and goodluck. Let us know how you did. We have had a bunch of members cashing in this week, could you be next? Keep up to date with us for this year recap and next years NASCAR 2021 playbook @WLFBETS on fb, insta and twitter. Also, check out our youtube page We Live Fantasy for all our off-season goodies!