Five thoughts after this weekend’s NASCAR races at Watkins Glen International …1. Big TakeawaySunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Watkins Glen took just under two hours to complete, which made it the quickest full-distance points race in the modern era (1972-present). There was only one caution in the race for the second straight week, which was the first time that’s happened in NASCAR since 1978.Those two statistics don’t tell the story of whether a race was good or bad, because last week’s race at the Indianapolis road course was viewed favorably despite similar numbers. But Watkins Glen was a letdown, so it’s worth exploring why.First, let’s rule out some potential reasons we’ve seen mentioned on social media:• Distance was too short. Nope. Ever since NASCAR began continuously running on the Watkins Glen road course in 1986, the race has always been 90 laps. It was 90 laps again on Sunday.• No stage breaks. You could certainly argue the elimination of NASCAR’s two pre-planned caution flags might have reduced the action since there would have been two more restarts otherwise. But given nothing happened on the restart with 30 laps to go, would two more yellow flags really have changed the perception of the race?• Stakes too low. Huh? Two of the drivers who finished in the top five hadn’t won a race this year and every other driver in the top 10 chasing William Byron was looking for more playoff points to pad their totals before the 10-race championship battle begins in two weeks. The stakes were plenty high, they just couldn’t get close enough to each other to pass.So what made Watkins Glen a snoozer compared to previous races at the same track? It’s hard to look much further than the Next Gen car as the answer. This might sound repetitive because it’s been well-established the car has made big oval racing much more compelling while road courses and short tracks have taken a hit. But each race only seems to emphasize that further, and Sunday was an exclamation point.
William Byron celebrates his victory in the Go Bowling at The Glen at Watkins Glen International. (Rich Barnes / USA Today)NASCAR has tried to come up with various fixes to make road courses and short tracks more entertaining, but it seems like a broader issue. The Next Gen (or Gen 7) model was designed with NASCAR chairman Jim France’s beloved IMSA sports cars in mind, and guess what? It races like a spec sports car on road courses. That means it’s easier to drive than the lumbering Gen 6 cars, harder to spin out and more difficult to pass since the cars are mostly going the same speed.People can call for a softer tire and more horsepower all they want, but those things aren’t going to dramatically change the Next Gen style of road racing at this point.As difficult as it may be, perhaps NASCAR needs to take a serious look at creating a completely different platform for road courses and short tracks. The Athletic subscriber Matt Gross had an idea to call the alternative car the “Gen 7b.” In other words, keep the current Next Gen model for the ovals but come up with a new car (that looks as similar as possible body-wise) for road courses and short tracks.Granted, this is unlikely to happen. The price of developing a new car would be sky high, take many years and teams would have to buy all sorts of different parts when the entire purpose of the Next Gen concept was billed as a cost-savings measure (though that hasn’t turned out to be the case). And acknowledging the on-track disappointments of this car would be a blow, particularly when it is essentially performing as designed on road courses.But consider the alternative: Every time there’s a road course or short track race on the schedule in coming years — including marquee events like the championship at Phoenix and all three current playoff elimination races (Bristol, the Roval and Martinsville) — is the industry going to collectively sigh while settling for the product we saw on Sunday?For fans who get loud at times about their dislike for Formula One (Too boring! Not enough passing! Field too spread out!), the last two weeks have been the closest thing NASCAR has to F1. If that trend continues indefinitely, it will become harder and harder to accept.2. Main Character: Chase ElliottWe don’t know how Chase Elliott felt about his team running him out of fuel at Watkins Glen because he wasn’t made available to the media afterward. But if you’ve paid attention at all to what Elliott has said over and over and over since returning from the broken leg sustained in a snowboarding accident this spring, we can guess how he might have responded to reporters’ questions.Below is an attempt to get inside the mind of Elliott heading into Daytona, albeit an imaginary one. These are not actual quotes, but an approximation based on listening to Elliott’s comments on a regular basis.Are you upset with your team for their fuel miscalculation that ruined your chance at a win on Sunday?Not Actually Chase: Listen, that starts with me. If I had done my job in qualifying on Saturday, Alan and the guys wouldn’t have been in the position to try and stretch the limits on strategy. I’m the one who put them in that spot. It’s unfortunate what happened, but we had to win. Based on how that race played out, as tough to pass as it was and with as few cautions as there were, we weren’t going to win regardless.How do you feel about your chances of making the playoffs at this point, facing a must-win situation at Daytona?Not Actually Chase: Look, the odds are not great, right? We’ll go there and do everything we can to win. But the chances of it actually happening are pretty low. And no one should feel sorry for us; we’ve put ourselves in this spot. Once I came back, we knew we’d have to win. I told you guys that again and again when you asked. I’ve never wavered on that. But we’re not running how we want or expect to. At this point, I’m not sure it even matters if we make it because we haven’t performed well enough as a team to make a deep run and I haven’t executed well enough on my end.How big of a disappointment would it be to miss the playoffs for the first time in your career?Not Actually Chase: It’s a bigger disappointment not to be running how we know we should. And I’ve said this to anyone who will listen: I just want to be someone who you’re used to seeing up front, getting top-fives and is not a surprise when you see them in victory lane. I don’t know how many other ways I can say it: Just being part of the playoff field is not as important to me as being in the mix week in and week out.Some of your fans are increasingly upset with your crew chief, Alan Gustafson. Would you be receptive to a change atop the pit box?Not Actually Chase: Alan is my guy. He lets me do my job and I let him do his job. We’ve had a lot of success together over the years. I want to continue with Alan and have him calling the shots for as long as he’s willing. I don’t worry about the outside noise because those people aren’t part of this team and don’t know what really goes on behind the scenes. And I don’t feel the need to share it or enlighten everyone else about it. All that matters is I have the utmost confidence in Alan and my guys, and this year has been as much on me as anyone.
Chase Elliott wasn’t made available after his car ran out of fuel at Watkins Glen. (Matthew O’Haren / USA Today)3. Question of the WeekCan Bubba Wallace make the playoffs for the first time in his career? His fate will be decided at Daytona, which is unquestionably one of his best tracks (most career top-fives, top-10s and best average finish with a minimum of four starts).Since moving to 23XI racing at the start of the 2021 season, Wallace has led at least one lap in nine of his 10 starts at Daytona and Talladega. During that time, he ranks second in average finish on those superspeedways (Ryan Blaney is first).But Wallace’s results at the two tracks have been boom or bust. He has three finishes of second or better (including his Talladega win in 2021) but has also been outside of the top 15 six times. Such is the nature of superspeedway racing, which makes his 32-point lead over Ty Gibbs heading into the regular-season finale feel shaky.And when you consider Wallace is dealing with dual threats — not only in the points situation but also in case there’s a new winner from below him in the standings — his current playoff position seems tenuous.So how should Wallace approach this race? He could be eliminated in a variety of ways, from an early random crash to an out-of-nowhere winner on the last lap. With that in mind, you’d think the strategy would be something like:• Try to get as many stage points as possible in Stages 1 and 2, hoping to pad the margin in case there’s no new winner and Gibbs is still running in Stage 3.• After that, there are two options: If Gibbs hasn’t wrecked out, Wallace can try to play the points situation and hope for the best with a repeat winner — or if Gibbs is eliminated, Wallace can race as hard as possible to try to win it himself.The tricky part is how aggressive Wallace should be with his moves if Gibbs is still in the race. If he takes himself out unnecessarily while going for the win when he didn’t need to, it could be quite a painful development. On the other hand, being overly conservative and seeing someone else walk away with his playoff berth might be even worse.His situation is unenviable for this week, with this exception: Wallace, for the first time in his carer, arrives at the regular-season finale currently inside the playoff field. Everyone who isn’t in the top 16 right now would love to have a 32-point lead when they drive through the Daytona tunnel this weekend.Can Wallace close the deal? At this point, only the gods of superspeedway racing know the answer.4. Trash and TreasureTrash: Wrecking someone for the win. In Saturday’s Xfinity Series race, Sam Mayer removed Gibbs from contention by spinning him out on the final restart when there were almost two full laps remaining. Mayer went on to win the race, and his move was lauded by the fans who resent Gibbs for doing similar things in the past.But two wrongs don’t make a right, and Mayer’s apparent retaliation on Gibbs for an earlier incident in the esses was heavy-handed. It would be like if someone stepped on your toe and then you responded by punching them in the face.Granted, the two drivers have a long and bitter history. They do not like each other one bit. Regardless, NASCAR shouldn’t allow this type of “racing” for a win. Blatantly taking out the leader should result in some sort of penalty, such as being sent to the back of the field; it shouldn’t be rewarded with the opportunity to do burnouts and celebrate in victory lane.Just last year, Gibbs was harshly criticized for taking out teammate Brandon Jones to win at Martinsville. His move at the time was totally uncalled for and he certainly received the message in the days afterward.Again, that doesn’t justify Mayer’s move on Gibbs this weekend. And it’s a bad look for the sport as a whole when races are decided that way.Treasure: Moving someone for the win. You might read that sentence and go, “Wait, what? How can you criticize Mayer and support the type of move Jesse Love made in Friday’s ARCA Series race at the Glen?” If you missed it, Love moved Connor Zilisch in the last corner of the last lap to win his eighth race of the season.But that was a bump-and-run (perfectly executed, by the way), which is one of the hallmarks of NASCAR racing. Using the bumper is perfectly acceptable in stock cars if done the right way. In Love’s case, he nudged his competitor just enough that Zilisch got out of the racing line; Zilisch then finished second, just behind Love, with no damage.It’s certainly a fine line, but it’s also an art. Had Love barreled into the final turn and wrecked Zilisch, he would be deserving of the criticism Mayer or Gibbs received. But he executed the move perfectly in going for the win, which is something that makes NASCAR unique from other forms of motorsport.5. Five at No. 5• Had there not been a repeat winner at the Glen, Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski would have gone to Daytona with a chance one of them might miss the playoffs despite solid regular-season performances. That would have been a shame for either one, but particularly for Harvick given it’s his final season. Now, with nothing on the line for Saturday night except playoff points, Harvick can race freely in going for his first superspeedway victory since 2010.• Keselowski making the playoffs ensured RFK Racing will have both of its cars in the 16-driver field, one year after neither made it. It’s been quite the turnaround for RFK, which struggled in the years before Keselowski joined as driver and co-owner. Of course, the turnaround won’t be in full bloom until Keselowski wins his first race with the team — and Daytona, where he has led 339 career laps with only one win, would be a great place to do it.• After winning the pole at Indianapolis, Daniel Suarez had been full of confidence he could race his way into the playoffs on points. “They have to worry about the 99,” Suarez had said then. His season had certainly been trending toward a playoff spot this summer; after a second-place finish at last month’s Atlanta race, Suarez was 15th in the standings — tied with Michael McDowell and ahead of Wallace. But after missing a chance at an Indy win and spinning out by himself early in Sunday’s race, Suarez is 43 points behind Wallace — essentially in must-win territory heading into Daytona. It’s been a frustrating development for Suarez, who was such an enjoyable part of Trackhouse Racing’s emergence in 2022 but has seen so many opportunities at good finishes slip away for various reasons this year.• We had AJ Allmendinger in the playoff field as part of our preseason predictions, but that’s not going to happen unless he wins at Daytona. The thinking was Allmendinger, who is so stellar on road courses, could snag one of the five events in the regular season and get a playoff berth out of it for his Kaulig Racing team. It didn’t turn out that way; Allmendinger ended the regular season with an average finish of 17.4 on road/street courses, one top-five finish (fourth on Sunday) and only two laps led.• Who had the best average finish on road/street courses during the regular season? RFK’s Chris Buescher, whose 8.0 average was ahead of Byron (9.4), Elliott (10.5) and Gibbs (10.6). This could also be the first year since 2018 to not have a repeat winner on road courses (Byron, McDowell, Tyler Reddick, Martin Truex Jr. and Shane van Gisbergen have won the five races so far).(Top photo: Rich Barnes / USA Today)

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